Is a sports economist. At Southern Utah University his name's David Barry what sports fan has not asked themselves this question. Why are so many front office decision makers so bad at their jobs in sports. His new book helps explain why it's called stumbling on -- they call it money well on steroids welcome it -- David --
Right Vladimir where he calls. I'm calling you from my office at southern Utah in a horse. Abuse you. It is a very good.
First and foremost the obvious question is one you address in your book. We all. It just kind of assume mart executives. Know what they're doing a qualified tandem economists really bring something to the table sports experts don't are you know.
Yeah we argue that you keys and it's not just there's there isn't the book that we -- draw upon research from a variety of different. Economists and and other researchers. And the tool that we bring to the table are what we don't awful lot of obstacles -- also. Sound. In sports is not different than other industries. People just are not past. To understand how to analyze statistics to get these kind of jobs. And so win with people get hired sports teams they don't -- say okay well look how much exactly out of these different variables impact outcomes do you know that. That's not that's not a question becomes a -- in -- so yeah we we I think we are able to come in and say some things that you know you maybe you're not analyze -- quite right.
All right so so one of the basic failures is it is a lack of understanding of Howell the numbers the stats connect two wins in this case at all over sports to let's keep it to the NBA or NBA city here. What numbers in that league are most important in directly related to winds of what numbers are overrated.
While the number that over rated. Is scoring total. Just the one fast after that primarily in tax. Our player say how many minutes you get where your skid. Postseason awards. What people tend to zero win on -- how quick points did you score.
And players -- that they can manipulate how many points they score -- simply taking more shots. And so you constantly see our coaches saying that.
There was a quote just two days ago from the head coach of the Clippers. Where he said one of the problems we have with the Clippers in the final days into the season is that -- a lot of free agent and he's free agent are choosing to take shots. Rather than focused on what is going to get us win. And wish it was just. Very odd admission from a NBA decision maker. That he knows that these players are doing things that are hurting his team and he can't stop them.
And they know they're gonna get rewarded for any.
Interesting okay so said the numbers that do matter.
Pin number that you matter art are. Shooting -- it's your ability to turn possessions in the point. So which -- shooting efficiency that that's very important. Instead things that give you the ball rebounds turnovers deals those things that drive outcomes and basketball until when -- would you even talking about. Of the important players on the players using you guys keep zeroing in on that one player do you choir from middle he's gonna make up for lost to Greg Oden and and that's Marcus Camby and Marcus Camby do that's so great. He gets -- you know that's a big thing that he does. Eddie does it brought -- career and and Camby is a very productive player he's the reason why the Blazers were able to overcome all the injuries. But he had unfortunately he couldn't stop Brandon Roy from getting hurt not. Brutal play elsewhere but. You know but it it all.
Andre Miller -- the same way to this why I've been hard on LaMarcus Aldridge is I think what exactly what you're saying is not that he doesn't get rebounds or he doesn't. Get you know helping in statistical ways that matter but. He's one of those guys that they you look at his points per game when you look at is it is flashy jumper any -- really good player but is he doing all he can to help the team win.
Yeah and and LaMarcus Aldridge is a great example. He had a player whose score and I think if -- The average blazer and who were the most important player on the -- Aldridge would come shortstop Atlanta. But he's not a player who does things that a lot of outstanding things he's.
He's about average income terms shooting efficiency and I would think I would have to think about baseball for a moment. -- it it's pretty it's pretty well understood that it efficient player in baseball are not helping you if if you if you say to a baseball fan. I got player here to EX 220. -- They don't sit there and -- you know she got to watch him play and he really good out there -- he got a hundred last year what you say that I hit good morning everyone says Yankees they'll get. At a basketball you get players who don't shoot particularly well and you say. How could see that that well you only scored 1 o'clock -- the game -- take thirty shots to do what is that really helping you. Yell at people footwork pocket you know he's somebody take those shots early and then no he didn't know that flop shot to the easiest thing to replace some of -- But he.
And they did so that's coming that it. Iverson would leave all these teams number shot they took didn't take much.
Yeah this that's fascinating I mean at -- but see the problem is as you point out of the book is that. These guys that's how they get paid I mean it it until they Intel the GM's take a stand and changed the model for what they pay players four. You mean you basically get paid for points per game in the NBA.
That's that'd be huge problem it hit it. It's the first thing when you hear people in the NBA acknowledges and they've acknowledged this. For decades nickel back the stuff read our box that in the sixty in he would say that. That you know he Red Auerbach would talk about how scoring is not the most important thing. Players have to focus on something else and he needed this back in the fifties and sixty. And yet here we are several decades later and you still see people the NBA saying. These play seemed overly focused probably points they score why can't we get them to focus on other things and what we keep -- them to do this why do you keep doing that. And I thought -- I I'm not I don't know exactly when that's gonna change --
Sports economist David bury our guest is an author of the new book called stumbling on to win spy you listening to two and eighty the fan watching on Comcast sports net. I guess in the NBA. But individuals on eighteen do matter it's it's less of a team sport more about stars they win especially exceptional stars this is like. Jordan's Bulls Kobe's Lakers Duncan Spurs have -- titles. The league's not -- does I always -- why there's so few champions well because this stock the exceptional stars have played for the same teams most teams have won over and over. So ye eat you know you say that in the book that the superstars. Simply affect the outcome of games more than everyone else -- settled theory that 80% of the of observed outcome comes from clinics and the people. Talk about what you found when putting back to the test with regards to the NBA.
Yeah they're they're -- idea and it and it goes back like over -- century. From an Italian economy -- things. Cold political principle that says that 80% of outcomes go to 20% of people and I'm not really sure that place in in all over the economy. But in basketball. We can fly if you go look through all roster. We we look at this -- the first top thirty years.
You find that in general.
80% of wins go back to 20% of the players -- and that worked out your top three players on your team are really what drive your outcomes. And if your top three players really don't produce very many wins. Then you're not gonna be very successful on other hand if what are your top three color happens to be LeBron James or -- Dwight Howard. Woman every year you're gonna be very successful at the last place you'd think teams win over the operatives of those guys who employee. The very best players and -- about basketball is that you're dealing with a.
Very -- population. The average height at six foot -- very few people in the African population or six -- seven your -- your talent from.
A very small slice of the overall population. In some of these guys are really incredible last week but you have to guard a seven footer with another seven footer. And a lot of seven -- to try to to put Dwight Howard are simply not very good. It -- Dwight Howard look for --
But after -- you're looking at about.
A one other aspect of the book and wanted to touch on was so you're study of of black quarterbacks in the NFL. Integration in north American sports was complete but the 1980s but did not in the NFL you studied the history of performance -- all going all the way back of white quarterbacks some black quarterbacks overtime. What did you find.
Tell what we find any -- you -- look at this in terms of Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Since 1969. There have been ten. Our quarterbacks who started her career after like 69 and they got elected -- Hall of Fame -- these guys were white.
Open -- white quarterbacks.
All the Steve young and Joe Montana verse which teams they always played for exactly the same team. Until much haven't begun obviously to each -- placed 49 --
But Roger Staubach John Elway they played the same eighteen year career year. On the one. An American quarterback was Warren Moon.
And it wore -- career pattern is looks a lot like -- now it's Warren -- every time. He had to -- horse even in the switching keeps. And it's important emphasize. Almost every quarterback has the game or to have a best treatment. All but if you're white quarterback. You don't tend to you don't tend have to switch -- one Little League quarterbacks. And purely black quarterback to do what we can see it in the pay of the quarterbacks at the very highest levels are black quarterbacks are paid less frequently performances for the white quarterback.
And you sound from 1971 to 1993 actually that the African American quarterbacks. Faired better statistically then like politics.
Absolutely yeah the black quarterbacks. Even -- in the in the period sent them that they've been slightly better but yet black quarterbacks certainly an earlier time period. Top perform uttered these are like quarterback it better be like quarter.
But they were not given the same opportunities they were not given the -- today.
I think there's still some of that today I think one of the issues -- Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia.
Is that people recognize he's a good quarterbacks but they don't give him the reverend -- give Brett -- Isn't Brett Favre -- and have statistically are pretty similar terms of their outcomes of what they do that the football field.
Output I don't percent to dominance added that he just doesn't get the kind of a treatment that Brett Favre is -- throughout his career.
It doesn't he. You think his underlying racial moment.
I really took -- about Favre only has one Super Bowl. I would I would compared autumn -- also the John Elway comics have certainly compares favorably John Elway and John Elway at the age of 34 no suitable. Dad I'm I'm I know what I was lit take our time and there is no way in the world the Broncos territory John Elway to to 34 -- never -- couple. To come up what straight about Eagles at the age of 34 so. I get -- I -- great plays -- small role.
Dave Barry his new book is called us stumbling on wins I highly recommend -- last question that I know that there's a notion that it would seem to work you know you get the the worst teams in the league get the best players in the in the way they form -- Straus and yet the Lions are always up there in the Clippers guys get these great draft picks and he go to baseball on the Kansas City Royals are always getting these great draft picks L east teams continue to stink. Why is that.
Yeah there's a lot of problems attracting talent in in in both based in baseball football and basketball.
basketball -- one -- actually found as you appear in the Final Four on the year you're drafted you'll be addressed to hire even know that has nothing to do with a lawyer it was in the NB CA.
football you really can't forecast how quarterback in college it plays in the NFL you you know lost it gave have a million dollars and Stafford. On the belief that he's different than the other quarterbacks they could've taken.
There's no evidence that they -- known that he was going to be any different and so Torre had a bit relieved to be different I I'm I grew up in Detroit I'm a Lions fan I really hope these different. But it'll there's no waiting till we different and there's no way you would get seven million dollars based on the information out. Two player that you can't really say is better than the other -- got taken later dropped.
Him to basically to sum it up. GM's just don't put enough time into statistical analysis into the into statistics that matter in in mean wins versus losses.
That's I think what we're saying over and over again on the research has been published.
David -- the book stumbling on wins I highly recommended couldn't put it down about three quarters with a nice job David thanks a lot. McKnight got -- that's a Dave Barry.
